海气耦合模式在东亚地区的可靠性评估  

EVALUATION OF CGCMCL CLIMATE SIMULATION IN EAST ASIA REGION

作　　者：赵宗慈[1] 丁一汇[1] 李晓东[1] 王绍武[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京大学地球物理系

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1995年第A01期9-18,共10页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金："短期气候变化预测理论研究"(913-02-05)项目;博士后基金及IPCC共同资助

摘　　要：该文利用近３０年（１９６１～１９９０）的表面大气温度、海平面气压、５００ｈＰａ高度和降水的季平均气候资料，评估了５个海气耦合模式（ＤＫＲＺＯＰＹＣ，ＤＫＲＺＩＳＧ，ＮＣＡＲ，ＧＦＤＬ，ＨＡＤＬ）对东亚和中国气候的模拟能力，结果表明，这些模式部有一定的能力模拟东亚和中国的气候，但模拟场都有明显的系统误差，在模拟季平均的气候变量场上不同的模式各有优缺点。另外，冬季的模拟效果比夏季好；５００ｈＰａ高度场的模拟效果最好，降水场的模拟效果最差，海平面气压和大气温度的模拟效果居中，考虑各个季节各个气候变量模拟的总体情况，可以认为在模拟东亚气候的效果上，ＤＫＲＺＯＰＹＣ是目前最好的海气耦合模式。RegioP1al evaluation of the present climate simulations in East Asia region from fiveCuupied Gent1ral Circulation Model experiments has been made in this paper。 These fivetransint CGCM experiments are:DKRZ OPYC,DKRZ LSG ,NCAR,GFDL,HADL。The discussion is restricted to the seasonal mean and the interannual variance ofseasonal mean of surface air temperature (SAT),sea-level pressure (MSLP) ,height of500 hPa(H500) and precipitation。 It is concluded that these five CGCMs have certainskill in siinulating spatial distribution of present climate in East Asia region,especially,the main characteristics of the seasonal mean H500 ,SAT, MSIP fields can be simulatedby nlost CGCMs。But there are significant systematic errors in SAT ,MSLP,H500 fieldsin most niodels。The simulated variable fields in winter are the most realistic of those infour seasons and annual mean, and those in summer are the worst.H500 fields are bestsirnulated,SAT and MSIP are medium,the precipitation fields are worst.On the whole,DKRZ OPYC is the best in sirnulating the present climate in East Asia region。

关 键 词：评估 海气耦合模式 瞬变模拟 可靠性 东亚地区 

分 类 号：P732.6[天文地球—海洋科学]