桃花花期预报的探讨  

Prediction of Peach-Blossom Flowering Phase

作　　者：张秀英[1] 胡东燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京市植物园

出　　处：《北京林业大学学报》1995年第4期88-93,共6页Journal of Beijing Forestry University

摘　　要：该文根据北京市植物园１９８３～１９９２年气温资料和同期桃花开花的物候期，通过回归分析，发现桃花的始花期与花前２～３旬的平均旬积温和平均最高旬积温关系非常密切，相关系数分别为－０．９６２０，－０．９４０５，－０．９２３１，－０．９１６２，在此基础上建立了桃花花期预报模式，经检验拟合率较高。在实际应用中应根据该年３月份温度情况，采用相应的花期预报模式进行开花始期的计算。Blooming is influenced by many factors,Up to now the temperature factor hasbeen mainly studied.According to the data on the temperature and flowering phase of peach-blossom observed in Beijing Botanical Garden,and its regression analysis,the beginning ofpeach-blossom flowering is closely related with the mean and accumulated temperature of thesecond and third decades(ten days)before blooming,The correlation coefficients are-0.962 0,-0.940 5,-0.923 1 and-0.916 2 respectively。Based on the analysis a predic-tion model for peach-blossom flowering has been set up.Experiment shows that the fittingrate of the model is fairly high.In practice, the flowering phase can be estimated with themodel and the temperature in March.

关 键 词：桃花 花期 预报模式 

分 类 号：S662.101[农业科学—果树学]