强震前中期地震活动的变化及TIP预测研究  

RESEARCH ON M8 ALGORITHM APPLYING TO TIP PREDICTION OF CHINA'S STRONG EARTHQUAKE CASES IN THE PAST DECADES

作　　者：黄德瑜[1] 陈颙[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心,中国北京100036 [2]国家地震局,中国北京100036

出　　处：《地震》1995年第4期323-327,共5页Earthquake

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助课题(49134100)。

摘　　要：用改进的M8算法研究了1979年以来我国华北、西南及邻近地区共16次强震前的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明,14次强震发生在被判定为概率增长时间的TIP内。TIP警戒约占研究总时空域的37％,获得了较好的强震中期预测内符效果。表明该方法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。This paper presents a positive research of TIP before 16 strong earthquakes occurred in North China and Southwest China and their adjacent area since 1979 by using the improved M8 algorithm. The result shows that 14 of them were determined that they occurred within the period of increasing probability. TIP precaution occupies about 37% of the total space-time domain. That means that we have made good results of the medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes. So the method could be used as one of the useful means of the medium-term prediction of strong earthquakes.

关 键 词：强震 中期预报 M8算法 地震前兆 地震活动性 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]