CN算法应用于我国23次强震的预测研究  

APPLICATION OF CN ALGORITHM TO FORECAST OF 23 STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN CHINA

作　　者：黄德瑜[1] 陈颙[2] 朱元清[3] 季颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心,北京100036 [2]国家地震局,北京100036 [3]上海市地震局,上海200062

出　　处：《地震学刊》1995年第2期1-7,共7页Journal of Seismology

基　　金：地震科学联合基金资助课题

摘　　要：本文用CN算法研究了我国近期大陆东部和西部南北带及邻近区域共23次强震前的TIP,即强震发生概率增长时间。结果表明,18次强震发生在被判定的强震发生概率增长时间的TIP内。TIP警戒约占总研究时空域的30％,获得了较好的中期地震预测效果。表明CN算法可作为强震中期预测的手段之一。Time of increasing probability (TIP) of occurrence prior recent 23 strong earthquakes of eastern part, and N-S earthquake zone and its adjacent area of Chinese mainland is studied using CN algorithm. The result shows that 18 strong earthquakes occurred in time of increasing probability of occurrence discriminated, and TIP warning reach about 30% of total time-space domain studied, which has better effect of medium term prediction. Thus, it is thought that CN algorithm used as one of medium term prediction mean of strong earthquake.

关 键 词：地震目录 概率预报 强震 地震预报 CN算法 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]