落叶松枯梢病短期测报技术的研究  

FORECAST TECHNIQUE OF THE BOTRYOSPHAERIA LARICINA

作　　者：潘学仁[1] 项存悌[1] 李茹秀[1] 田西迁 李玉莲 贾天和 王会军 赵海峰 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,黑龙江省勃利县林木病虫防治站,黑龙江省勃利县林业局

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》1995年第1期21-27,共7页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家"七五"科技攻关课题

摘　　要：１９８６～１９９１年在黑龙江省勃利县通天一林场设立固定标准地、通过孢子扑捉和病情调查，搞清了勃利县落叶松枯梢病流行规律与气象因子的关系。根据落叶松枯梢病流行规律．利用前１年６、７、三个月的平均温度（ｘ２）和平均降雨量（ｘ３）为自变因子，采用回归测报方法建立多元线性回归预测模型：ｙ＝２７·３８４２＋０．７０４５９６ｘ２＋０．３４３７ｘ３即可预测第２年的病情指数。又采用了灰色理论中的灰色预测模型。两种方法对模型内外的实际病情检验。证明预测模型是可信的。Through fixed observation from 1986 to 1991 at Tongtianyi forestry farm of Boli county. the spore trap and disease investigation in fixed sample plots showed the relation ship between the epidemic law of Botryosphaeria laricina and the weather factors. According to the epidemic law of Botryosphaeria laricina, the multiregression model was set to predict the disease accurrence. In the model y=27. 384 2+0. 704 596x2+0. 343 7x3, we adopted weather factors of average humidity (x2) and average rainfall (x3) of the last year to predict the disease index of the neXt year. We also used the Fuxxy system to set a prediction model.eg: GM(1.1) model. Through practical examination, the two models were proved to be reliable.

关 键 词：落叶松 枯梢病 回归预测模型 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：S763.712.2[农业科学—森林保护学] S763.105[农业科学—林学]