用棉花生育指标为主要因子预测棉红铃虫发生量  

Forecasting population amounts of Pectinophora gossypiella use cottong developmental indexes as main factors

作　　者：王瑞琪[1] 樊孝贤[1] 周柏龄 黄明松[1] 刘思义[1] 齐立 

机构地区：[1]湖北省农科院植保所,荆沙市植保站

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》1995年第4期39-41,共3页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：运用相关分析方法，在棉红铃虫虫情、气象及生育指标数据库中重点挑选前时段生育状况因子，结合气象要素和虫情，建立了二、三代棉红铃虫发生量的中期预测模型，经复相关和偏相关检验，均达极显著水平，且回测率均达９１．７％，二年预报验证，与实际发生情况相符。The historical data of Pectinophora gossgpiella,weather and cotton were anal-ysed by means of correlative analysis,and the developmental indexes of cotton is consideredthe main factors.The mid-term models for forecasting the population amounts of its 2nd and3rd generations were respectively established. All the correlative coefficients of the two mod-els are significant at the level of 1%,and 91.7%theoretical results of the two models are i-dentical to the historical records.The recent two year's population amounts,based on themodels are very close to its real occurrance.

关 键 词：棉花 生育指标 棉红铃虫 预测 

分 类 号：S431.26[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]