新丰江水库6．1级地震前震序列分析  

ANALYSIS OF FORESHOCK SEQUENCE OF XINFENGJIANG RESERVOIR-INDUCED EARTHQUAKE WITH Ms= 6.1

作　　者：左兆荣[1] 吴建平[1] 巫志玲 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局地球物理研究所

出　　处：《华南地震》1995年第1期21-29,共9页South China Journal of Seismology

基　　金："八五"合同制项目

摘　　要：裂纹由初始的亚临界扩展到发生非线性动力学失稳这一整个物理过程呈加速释放征兆；加速是失稳的一个必要条件。若以方程ｄΩ／ｄｔ＝Ｃ／（ｔｆ－ｔ）ｎ表征这一加速过程，则可将该过程简要地概括为地震释放速率比例于失稳破裂前剩余时间的负幂。根据这一原理，对１９６２年３月１９日广东河源新丰江水库６．１级地震的前震序列进行回顾性分析，并推算出库区于３月下旬发生７级以上大地震。与实测主震相比，发震时间有所推迟，震级也偏高，但却能提前２０多天发出警报，有利于防震减突对策的布署。The full physical process of crack propagation from initial subcritical rate to unstability of non-linear dynamics signed the acceleration release. It is summarized that the cumulative seismic releasing rate is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure if the accelerating process is discribde by the equation dΩ/dt=C/ (tf-t)n. Having analyzed the foreshock sequence of Xinfengjiang reservoir-induced earthquake (Ms 6. 1, Heyuan, Guangdong province, March 19, 1962. )according to this principle, we inferred that one strong earthquake with Ms≥7.0 would occur about the last ten-day period of March 23 in the reservoir zone. Comparing with the measurement of the main shock, the origin time was postponed and the magnitude was on the high side. However we could made alarm 20 days before the main shock, which would be benefit to the countermeasure of earthquake resistant and damage proof.

关 键 词：前震序列 地震预报 震级 新丰江水库 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]