基于CLIMEX的桔小实蝇在中国适生区的预测  

Potential distributions of the fruit fly Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera:Tephritidae) in China as predicted by CLIMEX

作　　者：侯柏华[1] 张润杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学生物防治国家重点实验室,广州510275

出　　处：《生态学报》2005年第7期1569-1574,共6页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家"973"资助项目(2002CB111405);国家自然科学基金资助项目(30471162)~~

摘　　要：桔小实蝇Bactroceradorsalis(Hendel),属双翅目Diptera,果实蝇科Tetriphitidae,主要分布在热带和亚热带地区。温度和湿度是影响桔小实蝇分布的重要气候因子。根据桔小实蝇对温湿度等气候因子的反应,采用CLIMEX软件对桔小实蝇在中国大陆的适生区进行了预测。设置了CLIMEX中的相应参数17个:发育起点温度DV0、生长最适宜温度范围DV1～DV2、致死高温DV3、有效发育积温PDD。生长发育所需最低土壤湿度临界SM0、最适宜湿度范围SM1～SM2、最高土壤湿度临界SM3。冷胁迫日度临界DTCS及其积累速率DHCS,热胁迫临界温度TTHS及其积累速率THHS,干旱胁迫临界SMDS及其积累速率HDS,湿胁迫SMWS及其积累速率HWS。以印度和夏威夷为已知适生分布区,反复调试修正上述这些参数值,使之与已知广泛分布的地区达到最大程度的吻合。然后用优化后的参数和中国大陆85个气象站点的气象资料模拟桔小实蝇在中国大陆的适生分布,结果显示:广东、海南、香港、广西、四川、云南、湖南、湖北、福建、江西、浙江等11个省(区)是桔小实蝇的适生分布区。主要分布在我国的华南和西南大部分地区,以及华中和华东的部分地区。根据CLIMEX模拟结果的EI值大小,将桔小实蝇在我国大陆的适生分布情况进一步划分为最适宜、次适宜、适宜和非适宜4个气候区,即华南地区全部以及广西省全境是桔小实蝇的最适宜分布区,除桂林(EI=17)外,其余气象点的EI值均大于40;西南地区的四川、云南两省及福建沿海地区是桔小实蝇的次适宜分布区,平均EI值为29.7;适宜分布区包括湖南、湖北、江西、浙江的少数地区,除赣州(EI=17)外,其余点的EI值均小于10;长江以北的广大地区是桔小实蝇的非适宜区,这些地区不适合桔小实蝇生存。Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis （Hendel） （Diptera：Tephritidae）, is native to tropical and subtropical zone. Temperature and moisture are the key factors determining its distribution. We used the computer model, CLIMEX to predict the fly＇s potential distribution in China. Seventeen variables were used and they were the lower temperature threshold （DV0）,lower optimum temperature （DV1）, upper optimum temperature （DV2）, upper temperature threshold （DV3）, length of growing season （PDD）, lower soil moisture threshold （SM0）, lower optimal soil moisture （SM1）, upper optimal soil moisture （SM2）, upper soil moisture threshold （SM3）, cold stress degree-day threshold （DTCS） and its rate （DHCS）, heat stress accumulation threshold （TTHS） and its rate （THHS）, dry stress threshold （SMDS） and its rate （HDS）, wet stress threshold （SMWS） and its rate （HWS）. A starting set of parameter values was selected based on knowledge of oriental fruit fly response to climatic extremes. An i＇terative parameter-fitting method was used to generate a map showing ecoclimatic index （EI） atmeteorological stations across India and Hawaii where the geographic distribution of oriental fruit fly is known. The EI is a measure of climatic suitability to survive of oriental fruit fly estimated by CLIMEX. The same parameters were then applied to data from China to predict the EIs. The potential geographic regions were divided into four categories according to the values of EIs, namely most suitable area, more suitable area, suitable area, and unsuitable area for oriental fruit fly. The results showed that the most suitable areas are in South China including Guangdong, Hong Kong, Hainan and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, where the values of EIs are over 40 expect Guilin （EI=17）. The more suitable area includes Yunnan, Sichuan, Southwest China and some part of Fujian province, where the mean value of EIs is 29.7. The suitable area drops in some parts of Hunan,

关 键 词：桔小实蝇 CLIMEX模型 适生区 预测 中国 

分 类 号：S433[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]