世界油价变动对我国经济影响的数量分析  

An Quantitative Analysis of the Impacts of WOP Fluctuations on China’s Economy

作　　者：钱争鸣[1] 郭鹏辉[1] 高峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2005年第8期21-25,共5页Journal of International Trade

摘　　要：本文通过对世界油价变动与我国宏观经济变量的建模及数量影响关系的实证研究,表明:世界油价与我国GDP、进出口贸易IE、固定资产投资INV均存在显著的因果关系;油价上涨对我国GDP和IE均表现为负面影响,且近期的影响大于远期,其中对IE的影响最大。针对如何加强我国石油经济安全,提出相应的对策建议。This study examines the relationships between world oil price （WOP） and China＇s macroeconomic variables through Granger Causality Test and VAR （VEC） models. The results show that although WOP has no or very minimal effects on CPI and fixed assets investment （INV） , it significantly and negatively influences China＇s GDP and import-export trade. Such effects are particularly the most significant on the latter. Moreover, the short-term effects exceed the long-term ones.Accordingly, this paper proposes several suggestions and strategies that are used to strengthen the economic security of Chinese oil.

关 键 词：中国 世界石油价格 石油经济安全 宏观经济变量 固定资产投资 石油战略储备体系 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F426.22