国外证券分析师盈利预测实证研究综述  

Overview of Empirical Studies on Earnings Forecasts of Overseas Securities Analysts

作　　者：胡奕明[1] 孙聪颍[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰管理学院,上海200052 [2]德勤华永会计师事务所,上海200002

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2005年第8期27-32,共6页Securities Market Herald

摘　　要：在对投资决策、资本成本、公司评估、盈余与股价的关系等进行探讨的文献中,分析师的盈利预测被广泛地用作盈利预期的代理变量,成为理论研究的一项基础。本文对国外证券分析师盈利预测的实证研究文献进行了综述,分析、比较了盈利预测业绩衡量标准、各衡量模型的优劣、乐观偏差、预测修正、意见分歧以及分析师跟进等理论。Among research studies on investment strategies,capital cost, corporate appraisal and relation between earnings and stock price, analysts＇ earnings forecasts are widely accepted as factor variable of earnings forecasts and basis of theoretical study.This paper is an overview of empirical studies on earnings forecasts by overseas securities analysts, focusing on standards of earnings forecast, standard comparison, optimistic disparity, forecast revision and divergence of view and follow-up with analysts.

关 键 词：证券分析师 盈利预测 文献综述 衡量模型 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]