Logistic增长模型在游客流量预测中的应用——以贵州省绥阳县为例  

THE APPLICATION OF LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL IN FORECAST OF TOURISTS AMOUNT——A Case Study of Suiyang, Guizhou Province

作　　者：严汾[1] 蒙吉军[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境学院资源与环境地理系"地表过程分析与模拟"教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《人文地理》2005年第4期87-91,共5页Human Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"西南喀斯特山区土地利用/土地覆被变化及其对土地资源利用可持续性的影响"(40335046)资助。

摘　　要：旅游开发要以市场为导向,以资源为基础,以产品为核心,以效益为目标。游客流量的准确预测对旅游资源的开发具有很重要的指导作用。现在游客流量预测已经有了一个比较成熟的方法系统,但这些方法大多针对于开发得比较成熟且具有一定的游客数据积累的景区。本文以贵州绥阳县双河溶洞国家地质公园为例,尝试将种群增长的Logistic曲线与景区的环境容量相结合的方法,来预测其未来一定时段的游客流量,得到了较为满意的结果,对国内其它类似旅游景区开发具有借鉴意义。Whether the tourism economy effectively operates or not is decided by the equilibrium of the supply and demand of tourism. The forecast of tourist amount becomes more and more important and play a lead role in the exploitation of tourism market. There is a mature system about the method of tourist amount forecast, which mainly aims at the scenic spot development and enough data about the tourists. As to the scenic spot that being exploited, the conventional method that forecast the tourist amount based on time serial data is infeasible, for the lack of data about tourist amount. The tourism in China develops more and more rapidly,with quick increase of the tourism demand. Facing such a potential market, more and more new tourism resources are exploited, then a quantity of scenic spots comes forth. For the sake of the rationality and effectivity of the exploitation, a touring plan which can guide the exploitation and be put into practice easily is needed. In the touring plan, the forecast of tourist amount is an important part. In order to figure out a method which can be applied into the tourist amount forecast of a new scenic spot without original data, we can get some enlightenment from the trend of tourist amount in scenic spot well developed. We can find out that the trend line can fit the population-growth logistic curve well. This paper attempt to forecast the tourist amount in a visible future, by means of combining the population-growth logistic curve with the environmental carrying capacity. In this method, we get the environmental carrying capacity by use of the distance method and figure out the parameter on the basis of the tourism development target and the constructed schedule of the infrastructure. Apply this method to case of the Shuanghe Karst National Geo-Park and get the forecast of tourist amount in the coming 15 years. This method has a referenced significance to the exploitation of the other similar domestic scenic spot. But there are also some deficiencies in this method, such as some subje

关 键 词：游客流量 LOGISTIC增长 生态旅游 环境容量 双河溶洞国家地质公园 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]