国债挤出效应的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Crowding-out Effect of Public Debt

作　　者：杨文奇[1] 李艳[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]西安交通大学人文学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2005年第3期100-103,共4页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：发行国债投资于基础设施是带动经济增长的重要手段,但随着国债发行规模的不断扩大,国债对民间投资是否存在挤出作用成为了理论界关注的焦点。文章通过对投资主体投资份额、总量的相关分析以及国债投资方向的聚类分析,认为现阶段由于国债投资方向与宏观经济环境的原因,国债发行对民间投资挤出作用较小,带动作用较大。Public debt for infrastruetural investment is an important means to foster economic growth. But with the ever increasing volume of the pubic debt develops the eoneern about the crowding - out effect of the debt on private investment. The eorrelation analysis of the investment shares and volume by investors and cluster analysis of the direction of publie debt funded investment indicate that, owing to the present environment, the crowding- out effect is small relative to its positive stimulating effect.

关 键 词：国债 挤出效应 相关分析 聚类分析 

分 类 号：F832.21[经济管理—金融学]