广西夏季降水量潜在可预报性估计  

ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN GUANGXI

作　　者：吴洪宝[1] 王盘兴[1] 林开平[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,南京210044

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2005年第4期445-452,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：科技部社会公益专项资金项目"珠江流域广西境内流域雨量预报与汛期洪涝检测业务体系研究"(37020)课题资助

摘　　要：研究和评价短期气候预测方法必须了解月或季平均量的年际变率有多少是可以被预报出来的。通常认为,总的年际变率能够被划分为主要来源于大气下边界条件持续性强迫的可预报成分和来源于“天气噪声”的不可预报成分,这两个成分的方差之比给出潜在预报性的测度。文章用低频白噪声延伸法及日降水量独立和相关假设下的方差分析方法估计了广西夏季降水量潜在可预报的气候信号方差和天气噪声方差。结果表明:全区都存在潜在可预报信号,在中部和东部气候信号最强,南部最弱。以绝对误差小于均方差0.68倍作为预报正确的标准,则预报正确率上限在自治区中部和东部约为72%,南部约为59%,北部和西部约为62%。To investigate and access the short-term climate forecast techniques it is necessary to know how much of interannual variability of the monthly or seasonal mean quantities is potentially predictable. It is generally accepted that the total interannual variability can be partitioned into a potentially predictable component, which arises primarily from the persistence forcing by the lower boundary conditions of atmosphere and an unpredictable component induced by “weather noise”. The ratio of the two components variance provides the measure of potential predictability. By means of daily precipitation data set the predictable climate signal and weather noise variance of seasonal precipitation in summer over the Guangxi are estimated in terms of low frequency white noise extension method and the analysis of variance under the assumptions of independence and dependence. Results show that there are potentially predictable climate signals over all the region, the most strong, most weak climate signals are in the center and the east, the south of the region respectively. With the absolute error smaller than 0.68 standard deviation as the criterion of correct prediction, the upper limit of correctness would be 72 %, 59 %, 62 % in the center and the east, the south, the north and the west respectively.

关 键 词：夏季降水量 气候信号 气候噪声 潜在可预报性 日降水量 估计 夏季 广西 噪声方差 年际变率 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]