2003年下半年的天灾预测和结果检验  

On the Forecasts and Result Tests of Natural Disasters in the Second Half-Year of 2003

作　　者：汤懋苍[1] 刘小凤 李栋梁[1] 梅秀萍 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [2]甘肃省地震局,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2005年第4期585-589,共5页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所所长基金项目"中国北方气候转型的事实与成因分析"(2004117)资助

摘　　要：制约我国天灾(旱、涝、震)活动的地热涡列共有4条,本文首先介绍了2003年上半年4条地热涡列的活动特征,然后根据其演变趋势预测了下半年我国将可能发生的天灾。从预测结果看,降水和洪灾预测较好,地震预测仍然不行。文中对地震预测应走的路提出了看法。There are 4 geothermal vortex arrays which induce natural disaster （drought/flood/earthquake） activity in China. In this paper we firstly introduced characteristics of the 4 geothermal vortex arrays in the first half-year of 2003, then forecast the natural disaster which would happen in China in the second half-year of 2003 based on the evolvement of the geothermal vortex. The results showed that the forecasts of flood and drought were better, but the earthquake prediction was not so good. Finally, we made some suggestion to the earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：地热涡 地震及早涝灾害预测 中国大陆 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]