R/S分析法在南水北调西线一期工程调水河流径流趋势预测中的应用  

Application of R/S on Forecast of Runoff Trend in the Water-Exporting Regions of the First Stage Project of the Western Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme

作　　者：门宝辉[1] 刘昌明[1] 夏军[1] 刘苏峡[1] 林忠辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2005年第4期568-573,共6页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：黄河水利委员会勘测规划设计研究院项目"南水北调西线一期工程引水枢纽下游生态环境需水量研究";国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(G19990436)资助

摘　　要：南水北调西线一期工程主要是从雅砻江支流鲜水河的达曲、泥曲和大渡河的支流色曲、杜柯河、玛柯河、阿柯河等6条河流上引水40×108m3·a-1, 约占河道年径流的60%～70%, 剩余大约30%～40%的径流主要用于河道的生态环境需水. 由此可见, 这些河流的径流多少直接关系着调水工程的实施. 利用域重标度分析法(R/S分析)对这6条支流附近的水文站的径流趋势进行了初步分析, 结果表明: 大渡河支流的绰斯甲、足木足、泥曲的朱巴、雅砻江的甘孜等水文站月径流序列的赫斯特系数分别为0.4090、 0.3884、 0.4487、 0.4271, 都<0.5, 即这些径流序列具有反持续性, 甘孜和足木足站的径流量将会增加;朱巴、绰斯甲两站的径流将会减少, 这对西线调水工程的实施是不利的.According to the first stage project of the western route of the south-to-north water transfer scheme, water of 4 billions m3 transfers annually from six branches of the Yalong River and Dadu River to the Yellow River. The transferred water accounts for 60%～70% of the total river runoff in the water-exporting regions, and the remnant acts as eco-environment water of the channels. Changing trends of runoff in these regions relate to the effect of the transfer project. With the development of the theoretical and practical research of fractal theory in China, the rescaled range analysis, which proposed by Harold E Hurst in 1965 and called R/S analysis by Benoit B Mandelbrot in 1969, becomes an important analytical method for time series. The changing trends of runoff in these six rivers are analyzed by using the rescale range method （R/S）. The results show that the Hurst coefficients are 0. 4090, 0. 3884, 0. 4487, 0.4271, respectively, in Chuo Sijia Hydrology Station and others, showing the trends are of anti-persistence. The runoff of Garze Station and Zumuzu Station will increase, but those of Zhuba Station and Chuosijia Station will decrease. These are disadvantageous to the transfer project. This primary study provides an idea and gist about run-off analysis for the first stage project of the western route of the south-to-north water transfer scheme.

关 键 词：南水北调 域重标度分析法 赫斯特系数 径流量 

分 类 号：P338.9[天文地球—水文科学]