应用马尔可夫链预测华山松木蠹象发生趋势  

Occurrence Forecast of Pissodes puctatus by Markov Chain Theory

作　　者：李任波[1] 刘菊华[2] 罗正方 王莹[3] 李永和[2] 谢开立[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南林学院基础部,云南昆明650224 [2]西南林学院保护生物学学院,云南昆明650224 [3]会泽县国营者海林场,云南会泽654211

出　　处：《西南林学院学报》2005年第2期50-52,共3页Journal of Southwest Forestry College

基　　金：国家林业局天然林保护工程(204208);云南省"十五"攻关项目(203211)资助.

摘　　要：依据会泽县国营者海林场1993～2003年华山松木蠹象发生面积,应用马尔可夫链,预测2004年华山松木蠹象发生量和发生趋势,与2004年实际情况相比较,以验证马尔可夫链在实际应用中的可靠性.The occurrence tendency of Pissodes puctatus on Zhehai State Forest Farm in Huize County, Yunnan Province in 2004 was forecast based on the occurrence areas of Pissodes puctatus recorded on the farm during the years from 1993 to 2003 by means of Markov chain theory. The reliability of the forecast method and the precision of the forecast were verified with the actual situation of the pest occurrence in the year of 2004.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链 预测预报 华山松木蠹象 发生趋势 

分 类 号：S763.305[农业科学—森林保护学]