洪水漫坝模糊可靠度分析简化模型探讨  

Discussion on simplified model for fuzzy reliability analysis of flood overtopping

作　　者：丰伟[1] 杨学堂[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西电力工业勘察设计研究院,广西南宁530023 [2]三峡大学土木水电学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2005年第4期13-15,共3页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

摘　　要：介绍了目前洪水漫坝可靠度分析的基本模型,指出了其缺点在于过于繁琐,且大多没有考虑模糊性.在简化随机荷载和随机抗力的基础上,综合考虑其随机性和模糊性,提出洪水漫坝模糊可靠度分析的简化模型,并介绍了该模型的一种近似解法.算例分析结果表明该模型对随机变量的特征参数准确性要求较高,在随机变量特征参数不确定时,该近似解法可作粗略的估算;在确保随机变量特征参数相对准确的前提下,该近似解法的计算成果具有满意的精确度.The shortcomings of basic models currently used for reliability analysis were pointed out, which lie in their complexity and little consideration of fuzzy factors. Based on the simplification of random loads and random resistances, a simplified model for fuzzy reliability analysis of flood overtopping was presented with comprehensive consideration of randomness and fuzziness, and an approximate solution to the present model was given, Case study shows that the present model is comparatively sensitive to some characteristic parameters of random variables. If these parameters are precise enough, the method can reach high accuracy, other- wise, it can only be used for preliminary estimation.

关 键 词：漫坝 洪水 模糊可靠度 

分 类 号：TV122.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]