近百年西北太平洋热带气旋年频数的变化特征  

A STUDY ON THE VARIATIONS OF ANNUAL FREQUENCY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC DURING THE LAST HUNDRED YEARS

作　　者：张光智[1] 张先恭[1] 魏凤英[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院天气动力所

出　　处：《热带气象学报》1995年第4期315-323,共9页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

摘　　要：利用经趋势订正的１８８４—１９８８年西北太平洋热带气旋年频数资料，分析了热带气旋年频数的多年变化及其与海面温度、南方涛动指数、太阳黑子数和环流型日数等的统计关系。初步结果表明，热带气旋年频数的变化具有明显的２１年、３１年、１５年和６年左右的周期和持续期平均为１２年左右的阶段变化；近百年来有三次较明显的转折，分别出现在１９３１、１９５９和１９７７年。热带气旋年频数在厄尔尼诺年有冬春季偏少、夏秋季偏多的趋势，但在统计上不够显著。在平流层西风位相时，北半球纬向环流的异常发展及太阳活动的增强有助于热带气旋的生成和发展。In this paper,a study on the variation of annual frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) and its relation with SST, Southern Oscillation index, sunspot relative number and number of days for specific circulation patterns was made by using 1884-1988 data of annual frequency for Northwest Pacific TC occurrence, which had been corrected to tendencies. Preliminary results indicated that in the variation of annual TC frequency there exist obvious periods of 21, 31 ,15 and 6 years and sustaining periods lasting 12 years in average.Three well-defined processes of inflexion were observed in 1931, 1959 and 1977 over the past hundred years. The results also suggested insignificant statistic tendency of annual TC frequency increasing (decreasing) in winter/spring (summer/autumn) in the E1 Nino years. When the stratosphere was in the zonally westerly phase, the northern zonal circulation would abnormally develop and solar activity would enhance to favour the generation and development of TC.

关 键 词：热带气旋 厄尔尼诺 环境变化 太平洋 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]