用改进的灰色-马尔柯夫模型预测矿井瓦斯涌出量  

Improved Grey-Markovian model and its application for forecasting mine gas emission rate

作　　者：张兆瑞[1] 赵永生[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西矿业学院采矿工程系

出　　处：《山西矿业学院学报》1995年第2期197-205,共9页

摘　　要：在对新老两种被广泛应用于有关时间序列诸类问题预测预报的灰色预测方法与马尔柯夫预测方法进行有关分析的基础上,将两者结合起来,形成一个改进的兼有灰色预测与马尔柯夫转移概率矩阵预测优点的灰色-马尔柯夫预测模型。该预测模型能充分利用历史数据给予的信息,可大大提高随机波动性较大数据序列的预测精度,可进一步拓宽灰色预测的应用范围。利用该预测模型对一些矿井进行瓦斯涌出量大小的预测研究表明,该模型具有较强的适用性和较高的准确性,用其对动态系统的分析更为适合。该预测模型为矿井瓦斯涌出量时间动态数列的预测提供了一条新的途径。Based on analyses of grey forecasting method and Markovian forecasting method, which are widely used for solving the problems about forecasting the time array, this paper combines these two methods, acquires the improved grey-Marko-vian forecasting model, having been given consideration to advantags of both the grey forecasting and the Markovian transference probability matrix forecasting.The model can fully use the information obtained from historical data, improve the prediction accuracy of big numerical array with stochastic fluctuation, and expand the application scope of grey forecasting. It has shown in practice that this forecasting model using for predicting mine gas emission rate, has greater adaptability and higher accuracy, and is much better suitable to analysis of dynamic system. The forecasting model provides a new way to the tiem dynamic numerical array of mine gas emission rate.

关 键 词：灰色预测 马尔柯夫模型 矿井 瓦斯涌出量 

分 类 号：TD712.5[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]