展望建筑物震害预测的发展方向  

LOOK FORWARD TO DEVELOPMENTAL DIRECTION OF PREDICTING EARTHQUAKE DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS

作　　者：胡宝生[1] 徐祥文[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局工程力学研究所

出　　处：《世界地震工程》1995年第3期33-38,共6页World Earthquake Engineering

摘　　要：本文回顾了我国建筑物震害预测研究和应用的发展过程,评论了各种预测方法的优缺点,指出了各家建议预测方法存在的不确定性,针对存在的问题,提出了减少或消除建筑物震害预测方法中不确定性的途径。最后,展望了建筑物震害预测在工程中的实用前景和发展方向。In this paper, the developmental process of research and application for predicting earthquake damage to buildings in China is looked back and merits and demerits of various kinds of method for prediction are commented. Based on uncertainty existed in present methods of the prediction the way to reduce and eliminate the uncertainty is put forward.Finally, the prospect and developmental direction of predicting earthquake damage to buildings in engineering are looked forward.

关 键 词：地震 震害预测 模糊统计 建筑 

分 类 号：TU746.1[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]