珠江三角洲水稻白叶枯病流行模型的研究  

STUDIES ON THE EPIDEMIC MODEL OF RICE BACTERIAL BLIGHT IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA

作　　者：黄炳超[1] 陈忠诚[1] 梅培家 梁建华 周志刚 

机构地区：[1]广东省农业科学院植物保护研究所 [2]广东省新会县农业局 [3]广东省中山县农业局 [4]广东省番禺县农业局

出　　处：《中国农业科学》1989年第1期62-67,共6页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

摘　　要：本文对珠江三角洲50年代中期至今的水稻白叶枯病的流行变动进行了系统的调查和分析。用多元回归和逐步回归法在IBM-PC/XT电子计算机上建立了5个多因子流行模型,用X^2-法检验模型的理论值和实测值的拟合概率均达99.5%,经1986、1987年的实际数据检验,效果相符。The epidemic dynamic of rice bacterial blight was investigated from 1955 to 1985 in the Pearl River delta of Guangdong province of China. The factors of the epidemic fluctuation of this disease in this region were analysised. It was shown that the susceptible varieties were the basic condition and the typhoon rain was the principal factor of the epidemic fluctuation of rice bacterial blight. 5 Mathematic models of epidemic with multiple regression and stepwise regression analysis were set with IBM-PC/XT microprocessor. The results showed that the fitting probabililties were over 99.5% with X^2-test, and the accuracy of forecast was right.

关 键 词：水稻 白叶枯病 流行模型 回归法 

分 类 号：S435.113.7[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]