1993年LAFS数值降水预报产品评价  

VERIFICATION OF PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR 1993 FROM LIMITED-AREA ANALYSIS FORECAST SYSTEM

作　　者：李延香[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1995年第3期281-288,共8页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：应用天气学和统计学方法对１９９３年ＬＡＦＳ数值降水预报产品进行检验。结果表明：多数主要降水过程预报较好；全年降水１０ｍｍ级和２５ｍｍ级降水预报准确率高于５０ｍｍ级降水的准确率；南方降水预报水平比其它地区高，高原地区最差；降水预报范围过大是ＬＡＦＳ的一大弱点。Synoptic and statistic methods are employed to verify the precipitation for ecasts for1993 from LAFS.The results show that the forecasts for most main precipitation eventsare successful;the accuracies of moderate and hpavy rain predictions are higher thanthose of torrential rain ones;the acciiracy of precipitation predictions for South China ishigher than that over the rest parts of China,unfortunately, and the lowest for Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It is the defects in LAFS that the area of precipitation forecasts is toolarge.

关 键 词：年度评价 LAFS 降水预报产品 数值预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]