用CEOF分析近百年中国东部旱涝的分布及其年际变化特征  

A CEOF ANALYSIS ON DISTRIBUTION AND INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD IN CHINA DURING THE LAST 100 YEARS

作　　者：魏凤英[1] 张先恭[1] 李晓东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京大学地球物理系

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1995年第4期454-460,共7页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金："短期气候预测理论和方法的研究"及"长期天气预报理论和人法研究"项目

摘　　要：通过１８５０～１９９１年旱涝百分率的ＣＥＯＦ分析，研究了近百年来中国东部旱涝的分布特证、时空变化特点及年际演变规律。结果表明，我国东部主要有三种旱涝分布类型。第一种类型是以长江流域为中心全国大范围旱或涝，空间位相近似相同，且有１０．７年和３．１年周期性变化，振幅强度在１９２３～１９２４年间曾发生过增强突变。第二种类型为南北旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相自北向南变化显著，且有４．３年周期性变化，振幅强度在１８８４～１８８５年间曾有一次减弱突变。第三种类型呈江淮流域与华北和华南旱涝趋势相反的分布，空间位相从南北两个方向向中间或相反方向移动，并有３．４年周期性变化，振幅强度在１９１１～１９１２年有过增强突变。By using the complex empirical orthogonal function(CEOF)analysis,the spatialand temporal distribution and interannual variations of drought and flood in the east ofChina in 1850～1991 are investigated.It is found that there are mainly three distributiontypes of drought and flood in summer of China. In the first type,drought or floodappear in most areas of China around the Changjiang valley,their spatial phases areapproximately the same,and there are 10.7 and 3.1 year periodic changes,respectively.There occurred abrupt increase in the time-amplitude during 1923～1924.The secondone is the distribution which of drought and flood in the north of China is opposite tothat in the south of China, the change of spatial phase from north to south isremarkable,and there are 4.3 year periodic change. There occured abrupt decreaseduring l 884～1885.The third one is the distribution which along the Changjiang andHuaihe valley is opposite to that in North China and Sorth China,the spatial phasemoves towardbothfrom northand southto medium or to their reverse direction,respectively ,and there are 3.4 year periodic change. The abrupt increase occurred during1911～1912.

关 键 词：中国 旱涝 分布 年际变化 CEOF分析 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S423[农业科学—植物保护]