小麦叶锈病中期预测模型的研制  

THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A MID-TERM FORECAST MODEL FOR LEAF RUST OF WHEAT

作　　者：曹克强[1] 朱之堉[1] 王拴马 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学植物保护系,保定071001

出　　处：《植物保护学报》1995年第1期57-61,共5页Journal of Plant Protection

摘　　要：根据河北省保定市和辛集市两地近十年对小麦叶锈病的调查资料,建立了一个小麦叶锈病中期预测模型。Y=-20.59+9.12X_1+0.85X_2+1.41X_3,X_1为品种的抗性参数,X_2为4月上中旬的总降雨量,X_3为4月上中旬的总降雨次数,Y为灌浆中期叶锈病的病情指数。通过对历史资料进行检验,预测准确率为80％。本模型适合于河北省中南部麦区对叶锈病发生程度的预测。Based on the investigation data from both Baoding and Xinji City during the recent ten years, a mid-term forecast model for leaf rust of wheat was established. It is: Y=-20. 59 + 9.12X1 + 0. 85X2 + 1. 41X3 in which X1 means the index of cultivar rust resistance from 0 to 4 , X2 and X3 represent the total precipitation and the total raining times during the first 20 days of April, respectively. By validation on the historical data, the accurate rate is as high as 80%. The model can be used to predict the severity of leaf rust in the central and southern parts of Hebei Province.

关 键 词：小麦 叶锈病 预测模型 中期预测 

分 类 号：S431.21[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]