蚕豆赤斑病流行趋势预报的模糊识别模式研究  

ON THE FUZZY RECOGNITION MODELS OF EPIDEMIC TREND FORECASTING OF CHOCOLATE SPOT OF BROAD BEAN(BOTRYTIS FABAE SARDINA)

作　　者：王昆[1] 沈友康 郑江[2] 沈亚萍[2] 王其礼[3] 刘锦生[3] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省南通农业学校植保组,南通226007 [2]江苏省射阳县农业局,射阳224300 [3]江苏省射阳县大兴乡农科站,射阳224344

出　　处：《植物病理学报》1995年第3期279-284,共6页Acta Phytopathologica Sinica

摘　　要：本文应用频率圆盘法(模式Ⅰ)、样本圆盘法(模式Ⅱ)和模糊点聚法(模式Ⅲ(1)(2)),对射阳县蚕豆赤斑病流行趋势进行了模糊识别预报。结果表明:模式Ⅰ和模式Ⅲ(1)的符合率达100%,模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ(2)的符合率仅为50％。应用时,可首先考虑模式Ⅰ、Ⅲ(1)及其结果。The Frequency - Disk Method (Model Ⅰ ), Sample - Disk Method (Model Ⅱ) , and Fuzzy Point -Clustering method (Model Ⅲ(1), Ⅲ(2)) had been applicated on the fuzzy recognition of epidemic trend forecasting of chocolate spot of broad bean (Botrytis fabae Sardina) in this paper. The results of the forecasting from 1988-1991 showed that the fit rate of the Model Ⅰ and Model Ⅲ(1) were all 100%, the fit rate of the Model Ⅱ and Model Ⅲ(2) were all 50%. Therefore, the Model Ⅰ and the Model Ⅲ(1) were thought first when we are forecasting application.

关 键 词：蚕豆 赤斑病 流行趋势预报 模糊识别模式 

分 类 号：S431.192[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]