云南及其周邻大地震与云南天文台时纬残差变化  

The Major Earthquakes in and around Yunnan and Variation of Astronomical Time-latitude Residuals Determined in Yunnan Observatory

作　　者：阚荣举[1] 胡辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,中国科学院云南天文台

出　　处：《中国地震》1995年第4期299-309,共11页Earthquake Research in China

基　　金：地震科学联合基金;云南省应用基础研究基金

摘　　要：本文侧重于讨论强震的中期异常特征及其预测标志。从方法特点出发，讨论了时纬残差异常用于地震预报的可行性以及用于临震预报的局限性。研究了云南省内６级以上强震、相邻区域７级以上大震的时纬残差异常标志。资料中最后一次强震经过了地震预测与预报全过程的实践检验。初步讨论了异常与构造运动的关系以及有异常无地震的特殊标志。The paper laied emphasis on the middle period characters and prediction criteria of major earthquakes. It is discussed that the feasibility in applying astronomical timelatitude residuals to earthquakes prediction and limitation to imminent-term prediction. It is also discussed that the relations between the anomalous criteria of time-latitude residuals and recent tectonic movements for the earthquakes of more than magnitude 6 in Yunnan province and more than magnitude 7 in the neighbouring areas surrounding Yunnan. It is preliminarily discussed that the special characteristics when the anomalies had appeared but the strong earthquake have not taken place. Arecent major earthquake is in good agreement with practical test of all process of the earthquake prediction.

关 键 词：时纬残差 残差异常 强震预测 地震 云南 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]