灰色预测理论在沙漠化监测中的应用  

APPLICATION OF GREY PREDICTION THEORY IN DESERTIFICATION MONITORING

作　　者：康国定[1] 姚发芬[1] 王熙章[1] 董玉祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院兰州沙漠研究所,中山大学城市与资源规划系

出　　处：《中国沙漠》1995年第4期353-356,共4页Journal of Desert Research

基　　金：中国科学院兰州分院择优基金资助项目

摘　　要：本文在农牧交错带沙漠化信息系统的基础上，根据数据库中的部分内容，以榆林县为例，用灰色系统的理论及ＧＭ（１，１）预测模型，分别对该县的人口及沙漠化土地进行预测研究，研究结果为；到２０００年，榆林县人口为４４．０３万人，比１９７５年净增人口１８．０５万人，占１９７５年总人口的６９．４９％，人口密度达６２．３９人／ｋｍ￣２，比１９７７年联合国沙漠化会议提出的２０人／ｋｍ￣２，为干旱地带的人口对土地压力的临界值高４２．３９人／ｋｍ￣２；榆林县重度、中度、轻度沙漠化土地面积分别为２０．６９６５万ｈａ，１５．０１２６ｈａ和１０．７１０５万ｈａ。严重沙漠化土地面积比１９７５年减少约１９万ｈａ，中度沙漠化土面积比１９７５年增加约４．８万ｈａ，轻度沙漠化土地面积比１９７５年增加５．６万ｈａ，总的趋势是沙漠化土地面积减少。Based on the desertification information system in agropastoral area of northern China,taking Yulin County as an example and using the grey prediction theory and GM(1,1)predictionmodel, a prediction study on population and land desertification in Yulin County was made. The studyresults showed that by the year 2000,the population of Yulin County will reach up to 440 300,a netincrease of 180 500 over 1975; the population density will reach up to 62.39 persons/km￣2, or greatlyexceeds the critical value of land pressure of arid zone set by UNCOD in 1977. The areas of severe,moderate and light desertified lands in Yulin are 206 965 ha, 150 126 ha and 107 105 harespectively. As compared with 1975, severe desertified land reduces 190000 ha,moderatedesertified land reduces 48 000 ha, while light desertified land increases 56 000 ha. In other words,the area of desertified land in Yulin tends to be reduced.

关 键 词：沙漠化监测 灰色系统理论 预测模型 沙漠 

分 类 号：P941.73[天文地球—自然地理学]