长江中下游实时洪水预报模拟  

Real-time flood forecasting in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：施勇[1] 栾震宇[1] 陈炼钢[1] 金秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水科学进展》2010年第6期847-852,共6页Advances in Water Science

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB05B04);公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(200801008;2007Shz02(1-9))~~

摘　　要：以长江中下游防洪系统为对象,概述了在大型复杂防洪系统水沙运动数值模拟基础上,成功地将面向长江中下游防洪规划论证需求的水沙数学模型转化为面向长江防洪系统防汛方案评估需求的长江中下游实时洪水预报数学模型。为适应实时预报调度快速、准确评估的要求,提出了基于水动力学的循环滚动计算模式和实时校正模式。实现了水文学实时校正方法与水动力学数学模型的耦合,建立了基于水动力学的实时校正模式和分洪溃口洪水预报模式。通过长江中下游防汛期间的试运行,较好地解决了洪水预报误差校正和分洪溃口后洪水预报等关键难题,为防汛方案的制定和实时洪水调度方案优化提供了技术支撑,主要成果已应用于长江中下游防汛调度方案中。Using the flood control system in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as study objects, a numerical model for real-time flood forecasting in the reaches is presented. The model is a further development of the flow and bed-load transport module that is part of a complex flood control system and able to provide information for flood control planning. To accommodate the needs of quickly and accurately forecasting floods and operating control structures in real-time, we propose an iterative scrolling algorithm and calibration techniques based on hydrodynamics. Coupling the numerical model with real-time calibration of hydrological parameters can thus be achieved. A trial operation of the numerical model is conducted during the Yangtze River flooding seasons. The result shows that the numerical model is able to effectively address key issues that arise from executing the real-time calibration of hydrological parameters and from real-time flood forecasting after Yangtze River embankment breached. The result provides the technical support for flood control planning and real-time flood operations. Our results have been used in flood operations for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

关 键 词：长江中下游 实时预报调度 实时洪水预报 预报模拟 the Yangtze River lower reaches 水动力学 动力学数学模型 防洪系统 下游防洪 防汛 调度方案 正模式 预报误差校正 实时校正方法 实时洪水调度 洪水预报模式 主要成果 需求 水沙运动 

分 类 号：P641[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] TV[天文地球—地质学]