玛纳斯河肯特瓦特站年径流序列分形分析  

Study on Fractal Characteristics of Annual Runoff of Kentewate Hydrologic Station in Manasi River

作　　者：李燐楷[1] 李毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第7期9-11,50,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50709028)

摘　　要：基于分形概念及其理论,利用重标极差(R/S)分析法分析了玛纳斯河多年径流量,计算了赫斯特系数(H)值和序列的分维数,并与其理论值进行了比较检验。依据赫斯特系数的突变点及Vτ的突变点,分析了年径流序列的分形特征、状态持续性及统计周期长度。结果表明,玛纳斯河年径流序列服从分形分布,具有长期的状态持续特性和18 a的统计周期长度,为本流域水资源合理规划与合理利用提供了统计参数,也为探索玛纳斯河年径流长程相关模型提供了新的思路。Based on the concept and theory of fractal,R/S(rescaled range)method is applied to analyze annual runoff of Manasi River and calculate the Hurst coefficient and fractal dimension.And then it is compared with the therocial Hurst value.According to the Hurst coefficient and Vτ aberrance point,fractal characteristics,persistence and statistical period of annual runoff are analyzed.The results show that the annual runoff series of Manasi River have the long-term persistence and statistical period of 18 years.This research provides some statistical parameters for reasonable water resources planning and utilization and a new thinking for exploring the annual runoff models with long range correlations.

关 键 词：玛纳斯河 瓦特 年径流序列 分形分析 Annual Runoff Fractal Characteristics 周期长度 突变点 统计参数 赫斯特系数 状态持续性 流域水资源 重标极差 相关模型 年径流量 理论值 合理利用 合理规划 分形特征 分形分布 

分 类 号：TK79[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] TV7[水利工程—水利水电工程]