城市设施恐怖袭击风险分析的方法论基础  

Methodological framework for analyzing risks of terrorist attack on urban facilities

作　　者：张峥[1] 吴宗之[2] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2005年第4期21-24,共4页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关计划"城市公共安全规划与应急预案编制及其关键技术研究"资助项目(2001BA803801).

摘　　要：由于恐怖袭击本质上的高度随机性,很难纯定量地估算概率,恐怖袭击风险的预测和减缓成为安全科学的新课题.本文依据经典的风险理论,探究易受攻击性和损失严重性的概念及其表征参数, 并通过易受攻击性和损失严重性等级矩阵确定城市设施遭恐怖袭击的风险水平.分析结果有助于合理配置防卫资源,有效减缓恐怖袭击可能造成的损失影响.In general, the likelihood of terrorist attacks can not be quantified statistically since it is extremely highly random in nature. Prediction and mitigation of risks from terrorist attack have become a new issue in the field of safety science. According to conventional risk theory, the concepts and characterization parameters of vulnerability and severity of loss are probed into, from the ranking matrix of which the potential risk level of attacks on urban facilities may be determined. The outputs of such an analysis are of practical significance in distributing defensive resources strategically, and in mitigating the impact of loss.

关 键 词：城市设施 恐怖袭击 风险评价 易受攻击性 损失严重性 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]