重庆地区滑坡与降雨关系的概率分析  

PROBABILITY ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LANDSLIDE AND RAINFALL IN CHONGQING AREA

作　　者：张珍[1] 李世海[1] 马力[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院力学研究所,北京100080 [2]重庆市气象局,重庆400000

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2005年第17期3185-3191,共7页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(2002CB412703);中国科学院重要方向性项目(KJCX2–SW–L1);"长江三峡库区蓄水后土石混合体库岸稳定性评价方法研究"项目

摘　　要：详细分析了重庆地区几十年内的577个滑坡的降雨与滑坡的历史资料,并对重庆地区的水文地质条件作了较为详细的介绍,然后从滑坡的时间分布、滑坡与日降雨量及暴雨的关系、滑坡与降雨发生时间的比较、滑坡发生的前10 d内有降雨的天数与连续降雨的天数的比较等方面详细研究了降雨与滑坡的关系,得出了几个有益的结论。研究结果表明:滑坡的活动强度与雨量的大小成正比,滑坡基本发生在降雨之后的4 d内;暴雨与滑坡的关系很密切,降暴雨的当天发生滑坡的可能性很大;当选取3 mm作为降雨开始入渗的界限时,如果连续3 d有降雨那么滑坡发生的可能性相对来说会很大。Historical data of landslide and rainfall of 577 landslides in several decades are analyzed and the hydrogeology conditions in Chongqing area are introduced in detail. The relationship between rainfall and landslide is investigated in respects of time distribution, intraday rainfall, rainstorm, comparison of time between landslides and rainfall, and comparison between the days with rainfall and those with continuous rainfall within ten days before the landslide： and several conclusions are drawn which prove that the relationship between rainfall and landslide is close. The quantity of landslide has direct ratio with rainfall. Landslide usually occurs within four days after a rainfall and within one day after a rainstorm. On the assumption that rainfall begins to infiltrate into soil when rainfall is 3 mm, if there.is 3-day continuous rainfall, the possibility of landslide is very high.

关 键 词：岩土力学 滑坡 降雨 水文地质条件 历史资料 暴雨 

分 类 号：TU47[建筑科学—结构工程]