我国发电装机波动性及其成因分析  

Investment cycles and causality analysis in generation capacity in China

作　　者：臧宝锋[1] 胡汉辉[1] 庄伟钢[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学集团经济与产业组织研究中心,江苏南京210096 [2]国家开发银行江苏省分行,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《中国电力》2005年第9期46-50,共5页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70473013)

摘　　要：分别应用绝对离差和滚动标准差2种方法度量了我国发电装机波动性,发现其呈现比较明显的“W”型周期性波动,并且自2003年以来有显著增加的趋势。建立发电装机与全社会用电量水平间自回归分布滞后模型考察这一波动性特征的来源,并按照实证数据加以修正。检验结果表明：发电装机波动根本上是由全社会用电量及其波动引致的,也受政策变动影响较大；在发电侧放开、售电侧管制的电力市场条件下,电力需求对发电装机的滞后效应将导致电力供需的蛛网图形趋于发散。从防范发散型蛛网、避免发电装机大幅波动的目的出发,讨论了电力市场条件下加强政府政策干预的必要性及稳定发电投资政策导向的重要性。Absolute deviation and strolling standard deviation were applied to calculate the construction cycles in generation capacity expansion in China. The volatility curve takes a notable “W” form, which means an ascending trend since year 2003. A corrected auto-regressive distributed lag model was also developed to find the causality of power plants construction volatility with total electricity consumption. The results show that while total electricity consumption determines the volatility of power generation investment in China foundationally, government intervention still exerts a remarkable influence on it. The conclusion is in two points. Firstly, it is necessary to introduce a powerful but proper intervention during the restructuring process of China＇s power industry. Secondly it is important to keep the electricity policy relatively stabilization to avoid the emanative spider web of power generation investment.

关 键 词：发电装机 波动性 全社会用电量 分布滞后模型 蛛网定理 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]