泥石流灾害损失评价  

Assessment on debris flow disaster losses

作　　者：赵源[1,2] 刘希林[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2005年第3期42-47,53,共7页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40271002);四川省重点科技资助项目(01SG049-02)

摘　　要：泥石流灾害损失评价是对已经发生的泥石流灾害所造成的损失进行综合性的测算和统计。它是泥石流灾害评价的重要内容之一。一次泥石流灾害,除了直接造成人员伤亡和财产损失外,还可能伴有潜在的间接影响。此外,时间和空间分布状况的不同也增加了评价的难度。所以,泥石流灾害损失评价是一项复杂的工作。灾害损失的严重程度需要通过适当的指标来反映。根据承灾体特点,文章初步建立了泥石流灾害损失评价指标,分别为人员损失、经济损失和救灾投入费用,并且对于每个指标给定了相应的计算方法。人员损失主要由因灾死亡损失和因灾伤害损失两部分构成;经济损失包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。直接经济损失集在在建筑、资产、交通、管线、资源5个方面,间接经济损失则通过与直接经济损失的比例关系来进行换算;救灾投入费用是灾害发生后进行救援、治理、恢复等所花费的费用。最终的灾害总损失等于上述3部分损失之和。在此基础上,综合时间和地域因素,提出了灾害损失的时空比较方法,从而增加了评价的科学性和合理性。泥石流灾害损失评价为定量反映灾情、进行泥石流救灾优先性工作提供了依据。Debris flow loss assessment is the synthetical calculation and statistics of the disaster loss and it is one of the most important contents of disaster assessment. It is a complicated work because the indirect influence may last a long period after a debris flow disaster except personnel＇s casualty and property loss. In addition, time and space distribution can also increase the difficulty of loss assessment. The degree of the disaster losses needs to be reflected by some proper indexes, so it is necessary to establish a multi-index assessment system. Based on analyzing on the characteristics of hazard-affected bodies, the paper establishes loss indexes of debris flow basically and gives corresponding calculation method for each index. The indexes consist of personal casualty loss, economic property loss and disaster relief loss. The personal casualty loss contains death and injuries while the economic property loss contains direct and indirect losses. The direct loss consists of construction loss, property loss, transporation loss, pipeline loss and resource loss, and then we can calculate the indirect loss through the proportion between the two losses. The disaster relief loss index consists of rescue, management and recovery. At last, the disaster total loss can be got, which is the sum of the three losses. In addition, considering the factor of time and space, this paper also gives comparing-model of disaster loss and it can increase the reasonableness of assessment. The loss assessment may serve the work of debris flow prevention priority and disaster management.

关 键 词：泥石流 灾害 损失 评价指标 人员损失 经济损失 救灾投入费用 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学] X4[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]