间断需求预测方法综述  

A Review of Intermittent Demand Forecasting Methods

作　　者：杨杰[1] 张斌[1] 华中生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学商学院,安徽合肥230052

出　　处：《预测》2005年第5期70-75,共6页Forecasting

摘　　要：间断需求是一种随机需求,需求数据中存在着大量的零值。具有间断需求的物资如备件、贵重设备等对于企业生产运作非常重要,需要精确的预测才能很好地进行管理,但目前研究间断需求预测方法的文献不多,已有的间断需求预测方法适用范围有限,还缺少比较通用的预测方法。本文对现有的间断需求预测方法进行了回顾,分析了当前间断需求预测方法存在的问题,并提出了未来可能的研究方向。Intermittent demand is a random demand, where there＇s a large proportion of zero in the demand series. Items with intermittent demand are usually very important for enterprises, and there＇s great need for accurate demand forecasting for such items. However there are only a few forecasting methods for intermittent demand, which are only suitable for .some special situations. This paper gives a review of forecasting methods for intermittent demand. Limitations of current intermittent demand forecasting methods have been summarized and analyzed, and potential direction for future research has been suggested

关 键 词：间断需求 需求间隔 0—1序列 

分 类 号：F406.5[经济管理—产业经济]