软土路基沉降的优性组合预测  

SUPERIOR COMBINATION FORECASTING SETTLEMENT OF SOFT CLAY EMBANKMENTS

作　　者：李涛[1] 张仪萍[1] 张土乔[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2005年第18期3282-3286,共5页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50278089);浙江省自然科学基金项目(501163)

摘　　要：通过分析实测数据来预测沉降是实际工程中较多采用的方法。单一的预测方法各有其适用性,同时也存在着不足,据此提出既能综合利用多种预测方法提供的信息又能提高预测精度的组合预测。不同机理的沉降预测方法组合时,以误差的平方和或离差绝对值之和最小为准则的组合预测不一定能如实地反映其有效性。因此,采用以有效度最大为准则的优性组合预测,并通过具体工程实例分析,说明优性组合预测的有效性及加权系数的时变特性。The settlement prediction is an important problem in soft clay roadbed design and construction. For the normal prediction methods based on observation data have different applicabilities and disadvantages, the combination forecasting can synthetically utilize the information provided by different methods to improve the precision of prediction. To compare the validity of settlement prediction with different principia, superior combination forecasting based on forecasting effective measure is much better than the traditional combination forecasting, which modeled on the minimal value of error sum of squares or the deviation absolute sum. A case study is carded out to illustrate the validity of superior combination forecasting and the time-variant character of weight coefficient.

关 键 词：土力学 沉降 优性组合预测 加权系数 

分 类 号：TU471.8[建筑科学—结构工程]