短期降雨预报在汛限水位动态控制中的应用  

Dynamic control of reservoir normal level in flood season based on short-term rainfall forecast

作　　者：周惠成[1] 李丽琴[1] 胡军 刘松 张明钢 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学,辽宁大连116024 [2]丹江口水利枢纽管理局,湖北丹江口442700

出　　处：《水力发电》2005年第8期22-26,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50479056);教育部科技研究重点项目(01054)

摘　　要：以丹江口水库为例,根据考虑降雨预报的水库汛期限制水位控制的新理念,研究了利用短期降雨预报信息进行水库汛限水位动态控制的调度方式;同时分析了在发生降雨预报误差时,汛限水位动态控制的风险率以及大坝所能抗御洪水标准的变化,概化计算了抬高汛限水位增加的发电效益。结果表明,在不增加丹江口水库及其上下游防护对象风险的前提下,抬高汛限水位可以为丹江口水库带来较大的经济效益。Danjiangkou Reservoir is taken as an example to give an application for the new idea of controlling reservoir normal level in flood season （RNLFS） dynamically based on rainfall forecast. First, the accuracy analysis of rainfall forecast for Danjiangkou Reservoir basin and its three regions is given so that the rainfall forecasts for 24-hour and 48-hour can be used in more safety way. Then the flood operation method controlling RNLFS dynamically is put forward in terms of short-term rainfall forecasting information. At last, the risks from rainfall forecast errors and benefits from controlling RNLFS dynamically are analyzed. It is shown that no risks are added when 24-hour rainfall forecasts are used and much more hydropower can be generated than before.

关 键 词：汛限水位 动态控制 短期降雨预报 丹江口水库 

分 类 号：P338.1[天文地球—水文科学] TV697.11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]