中国股票市场理性的实证分析  

Analysis about Chinese market rationality based on the co-integration

作　　者：任有泉[1] 韩泽县[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2005年第9期1213-1215,共3页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(70225002).

摘　　要：利用协整技术,通过对具体个股股价和公司经营业绩之间的关系分析,从微观的角度探讨股票市场的理性问题.实证的结果表明:公司的经营业绩与股票的价格不存在协整关系;在我国证券市场,基础分析对证券分析缺乏作用;整个市场投机行为比较严重;投资者的行为整体上是非理性的.Rationality is the symbol of a stock market＇ s mature. With co-integrate method, the specific securities instead of the Index is analysed, but no co-integrate relations are found between prices and returns of listing companies＇. This means that the stock market can＇ t reflect the real economy. At the mean time, the behavior of investors is unreasonable.

关 键 词：协整 股市 理性 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]