重大危险源风险评价方法的改进研究  

Modification of Risk Assessment Method of Major Hazard Installation

作　　者：张峥[1] 吴宗之[2] 刘茂[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学城市公共安全研究中心,天津300071 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《青岛大学学报（工程技术版）》2005年第3期32-38,共7页Journal of Qingdao University(Engineering & Technology Edition)

基　　金："十五"国家科技攻关计划重点项目(2001BA803B01)

摘　　要：为使重大危险源风险分析更加完善,从攻击者的角度分析工业设施(主要指化学物质或能量聚集的工业设施)固有特征中影响袭击目标选择的诸因素,提出易受攻击性指标。将人为破坏(恐怖袭击)引发事故的风险纳入重大危险源风险评价的研究范畴,对现有的评价指标体系进行了改进。采用改进后的方法评价某化工企业原料罐区的事故风险,其固有危险性的评价值增大,说明在恐怖袭击威胁确定存在的前提下,重大危险源发生事故的可能性有所上升。For the purpose to perfect the risk assessment of major hazard installation, a vulnerability assessment methodology for industrial facilities is developed on the basis of relativity between target selection of attack and certain inherence of industrial facilities（especially the industrial facilities involve a store of chemical or energy）. The risk from man-made destructions（typically terrorism attacks） is included in the range of major hazard installation assessment, and existing assessment index system is modified. The inherent hazard of the store area of a chemical plant drew from the modified methodology increases and the outcome shows that the accident possibility of major hazard installation will upgrade under a definite threat of terrorism attacks.

关 键 词：重大危险源 恐怖袭击 事故易发性 易受攻击性 评价指标体系 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]