宁夏春季沙尘暴气候趋势预测系统  

Forecast system for spring sandstorm climate trend in Ningxia

作　　者：纳丽[1,2] 孙银川 郑广芬[1,2] 胡文东[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室 [2]宁夏气象台,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏气象台

出　　处：《宁夏工程技术》2005年第3期204-207,212,共5页Ningxia Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40065002);中国气象局基金资助项目--"宁夏沙尘暴监测预警服务系统研究"

摘　　要：宁夏春季沙尘暴短期气候趋势预测系统是对1961—2003年北半球500hPa月平均高度场,太平洋月平均海温场、气压场、500hPa月环流特征量和宁夏18个主要测站月平均气温、降水量,春季及春季各月沙尘暴日数资料进行统计分析,在研究宁夏春季沙尘暴气候特征,沙尘暴多发年、少发年的大气环流异常特征,沙尘暴气候趋势预测等内容的基础上建立的.介绍了该系统所涵盖的资料处理、信息分析、沙尘暴特征、影响因子、前期环流特征、概念预测模型、预测方法、预测产品八个模块,重点描述了最优子集回归预测模型和均值生成函数预测模型,并利用这两种预测模型对1999—2003年进行了预测试验.该系统在2004年的业务运行中,预测结果与实况基本一致,取得了较好的社会效益.North hemisphere average temperature at 500 hPa, monthly average sea temperature and pressure over Pacific, 500 hPa circumfluence eigenvalue, observed monthly average of temperature, precipitation in 18 major meteorological stations were selected to analyze the atmospheric circulation features of spring sandstorm in Ningxia based on the prophase studies. The qualitative and quantitative analysis were conducted also on sandstorm using climate factors, and the spring sandstorm climate trend forecast system in Ningxia was developed for the first time at provincial level in China. The system including data process, information analysis, sandstorm feature, effecting factors, conceptual model and 6 methods, and forecast products, was introduced. The experimental forecasts from 1999 to 2003 using the model above showed that the system was capable to forecast the climate trend of spring sandstorm, and the forecast was consistent with the observation in 2004. A good social accomplishment has been achieved.

关 键 词：沙尘暴 气候趋势 预测系统 

分 类 号：P415.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]