人民币汇率合理性判断——用平行数据单位根对人民币购买力平价的经验分析  

A Judgement on the Reasonableness of the Exchange Rate of RMB: An Application of Panel Unit Root Test

作　　者：孙刚[1] 邓黎阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财经问题研究》2005年第10期36-44,共9页Research On Financial and Economic Issues

摘　　要：本文讨论了人民币汇率是否合理、人民币是否应该升值的两个判断标准,采用四种新发展起来的平行数据单位根检验法,对1978年1月—2004年9月的人民币购买力平价进行了检验。检验的结果普遍支持了购买力平价,可以认为人民币汇率的长期基础是合理的。但我们认为由于汇率在当代存在着两重作用与二重性,现有汇率理论只能部分地解释汇率的决定。论文对汇率的两重作用与二重性进行了分析。This paper discusses the issues of the reasonableness of the exchange rate of RMB and the standards that can be used to judge whether RMB should be revalued, and adopt four kinds of newly developed panel unit root tests to examine the purchasing power parity （PPP） of RMB during the period of 1978/1 -2004/9. The results of the tests generally support PPP, which make us believe that the exchange rates of RMB are reasonable in the long run. In the meantime we also ague that since the exchange rate has double roles and dual characters in modern time all the existed theories of exchange rate can only explain partially that how the exchange rate is determined. This paper analyses the double roles and dual characters of the exchange rate.

关 键 词：平行数据单位根检验法 购买力平价 汇率的两重作用与二重性 

分 类 号：F832.61[经济管理—金融学]