中国能源消费的分解分析  

Decomposition Analysis of Chinese Energy Consumption

作　　者：孙鹏[1] 顾晓薇[1] 刘敬智[1] 王青[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学资源与生态经济研究中心,沈阳110004

出　　处：《资源科学》2005年第5期15-19,共5页Resources Science

基　　金：教育部优秀中青年教师基金项目资助(编号:1711)。

摘　　要：经济发展对能源消耗的不断增加同能源储量不断减少之间的矛盾日趋严重,能源危机时威胁着世界经济的发展.我国正处于全面工业化时期,经济快速发展,能源使用效率低,近几年不少地区出现的不同程度的'三荒'(电荒、煤荒和油荒)正是这一矛盾的体现.为了深入了解我国经济发展和能源使用效率对能源消耗的影响,本文运用分解模型把能源消耗总量的变化分解为经济增长效应和能源强度效应.计算结果显示:1978年～2003年间能源效率年均增长率为4.76%,能源消耗总量没有随GDP的增长而同比增长,经济发展与能源消耗之间实现了一定程度的相对脱钩;研究期间中国经济发展的增长效应共使能源消耗量增加约22.8×108t标准煤,而能源消耗强度降低所带来的减量效应共使能源消耗量减少约11.7×108t标准煤.若要在实现2020年国内生产总值(GDP)在2000年的基础上翻两番的目标的同时,使能源消耗总量保持在2000年水平,2000年～2020年间能源使用效率年增长率需达到7.2%,这是十分困难,但经过努力实现这一期间能源效率年均增长5%,从而把2020年的能源消耗总量控制在20×108t标准煤以内是有可能的.特别值得注意的是2001年～2003年的能源消耗增长速度超过了同期的GDP增长速度,能源使用效率随经济的发展不但没有提高,反而在下降.The conflict is becoming ever more pronounced between the ever-increasing demand of fossil energy and the limited energy reserves. Possible energy crisis is an increasing threat to the development of the world economy. China is at a stage of striving toward industrializing its economy with a high economic growth rate and low energy efficiency, and energy shortage is being experienced in a larger part of the country. In order to get an insight understanding of the effects of the economic development and the change of energy efficiency on the country＇s energy consumption, decomposition technique is used to decompose the increase in energy consumption into economic-growth effect and energy-intensity effect. Results show that, during 1978- 2003, the energy-use efficiency increased at an average annual rate of 4.76%, and the amount of energy consumption did not increase proportionally with the growth of GDP, which means that a certain degree of relative de-linking was achieved between the economic development and the energy consumption. The total increase in energy consumption due to economic-growth effect was about 2.28 billion tons of standard coal during the study period, while the total reduction in energy consumption due to the reducing effect induced by the decrease in energy intensity was about 1.17 billion tons of standard coal in the same period. To realize the 2020 GDP goal of quadrupling the 2000 GDP and at the same time keeping the energy consumption at the same level of 2000, the energy efficiency must increase at an annual rate of 7.2 %, which will be very difficult to achieve. However, it is probable to achieve an annual energy efficiency increase of 5% during 2000 - 2020, and keep the energy consumption below 2 billon tons of standard coal in 2020. Attention must be called to the fact that during 2001- 2003, the growth rate of energy consumption exceeded that of GDP, resulting in decreasing efficiency of energy use.

关 键 词：中国 能源消费 分解 能源使用效率 能源消费 分解模型 中国 能源使用效率 能源消耗量 2000年 2020年 经济发展 2003年 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] TP274.2[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]