资本管制能否抑制资本外逃──关于中国的案例分析  

Can Capital Control Restrain Capital Flight──A Case Study of China

作　　者：何娟文[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学金融学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《财经理论与实践》2005年第5期60-64,共5页The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：关于资本管制抑制资本外逃的有效性问题,国内外学者曾采用多种计量模型进行过深入的分析,但没有得出统一的结论.运用经济计量分析中最新的协整分析方法--边界检验(Bounds Testing)和自回归分布滞后模型(Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model,ARDL)对中国从1980～2003年的资本外逃状况进行分析的结果表明,无论是从短期还是从长期来看,资本管制对我国的资本外逃都有显著的抑制作用.As to the efficiency of capital control on capital flight, scholars at home and abroad have done much research, but there is no consistent answer. By employing the latest co- integration techniques the Bounds Testing approach （BT） and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model （ARDL） to examine the long - run and short - run behavior of capital flight cases from China over the periods 1980-2003, it is founded that capital control play a very important role in restraining capital flight.

关 键 词：资本管制 资本外逃 协整 边界检验 自回归分布滞后模型 

分 类 号：F830.9[经济管理—金融学]