三峡工程高边坡的稳定性分析  

Stability Analysis of High Excavated Slope in Three Gorges Project

作　　者：林跃忠[1] 王铁成[1] 王来[2] 陈恒超[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]山东科技大学土木工程系,泰安271019

出　　处：《天津大学学报》2005年第10期936-940,共5页Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology)

摘　　要：为了分析三峡工程边坡的稳定性,根据灰色系统的理论,利用GM(1,1)预测模型,依据三峡现场边坡的测试数据,建立了边坡岩体变形的灰色预测模型,绘出了边坡变形的拟合和预测曲线,能够比较准确地预测边坡岩体变形的发展情况及稳定性,为边坡岩体变形的预测提供了可靠保证和理论依据.计算分析表明,其预测结果与实测数据较吻合,相对平均精度超过98%,能够满足工程的使用要求.三峡边坡工程是稳定和安全可靠的.In order to analyze the stability of high excavated slope in Three Gorges Project, a gray forecast model of slope deformation was established by test deformation data of slope excavation in Three Gorges Project and the GM （ 1,1 ） forecast model of gray system. The fitting and forecast curves of the slope deformation were drawn. The gray forecast model can be used to forecast minute slope deformation development and stability. It can also offer reliable guarantee and theoretical gist for slope deformation forecast. Calculations indicate the theoretical predictions are inosculating with available test results. The average relative precision is more than 98%, high enough to satisfy Three Goreges Project＇ s requirements. Three Gorges Project slope proves to be steady and safe.

关 键 词：三峡工程 永久船闸 岩体边坡 变形预测 灰色系统 

分 类 号：TD824.7[矿业工程—煤矿开采]