地震灾害预测和应急模拟系统的设计与应用——以永安市城市应急系统为例  

Design of the seismic disaster prediction and emergency simulating system and its application:taking emergency system in Yongan city as a case

作　　者：危福泉[1] 刘高焕[2] 姚新[2] 蔡宗文[1] 洪伟 

机构地区：[1]福建省地震局,福州350003 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]九江市环境保护局,江西九江332000

出　　处：《地理研究》2005年第5期749-756,共8页Geographical Research

基　　金：科技部"十五"国家攻关计划项目(2001BA601B-04-01-06);福建省2003年重点科技攻关项目(2003Y039);福建省发展计划委员会"十五"重点项目"福建省地震重点监视防御区城市防震减灾体系工程(105-05)专题"

摘　　要：城市防震减灾是地震潜在频发区提高自然灾害防治能力建设的重要方面。本文结合福建省永安市城市防震减灾信息管理系统的建设,探讨设计防震减灾数值模型,分析模型集成的关键技术,构建了地震风险评估、建筑物易损性评价、生命与财产损失估算、救援与救灾管理调度等模型和基于GIS开发的震害预测和应急模拟系统。该系统在福建省永安市的实际应用表明,通过对地震灾害预测结果的分析,可加强城市抗震中的薄弱环节,为灾区政府应急响应和制订对策提供决策支持辅助信息,从而显著提高城市防震减灾的综合能力。Urban earthquake prevention and tors which improve the ability of natural disaster alleviation is one of the important facdisaster prevention in the areas where earthquakes may occur frequently. Combining with the practice of constructing urban information management systems for anti-earthquake and seismic hazard reduction in Yongan City of Fujian Province,this paper not only discusses the mathematic models of earthquake prevention and disaster alleviation, but also analyses the critical techniques of model integration. In addition,a seismic hazard prediction and emergency simulation system was established based on GIS for seismic risk evaluation, vulnerability analysis of buildings, estimation of casualty and economic loss, search and rescue management. GIS has notable advantages for spatial analysis and graphic display. We can predict the influence of earthquake in virtue of many seismic mathematic models, such as the model of vulnerability analysis of buildings, estimation of casualty and economic loss, the influence of epicentrum. By GIS and relevant models, we can identify the coverage of earthquake which can directly affect the precision of final result. It is believed that the loss of earthquake depends on the intensity of the earthquake. Certainly ,it is true. In the mathematic models, the scale and the direction of seismic grade affect the distribution range of ellipse. Another factor is also very important, that is the quality of buildings,which are affected by the materials, years and stories of a building. According to the result that leads to the formation of the models, we can take proper measures to reduce hazard before earthquake. The practical application of the system shows that it can not only intensify the weakness in urban earthquake prevention according to the analysis of seismic hazard prediction result, but also provide auxiliary information for disaster affected area＇s decision-making and quick response. Therefore, the comprehensive abilities for urban earthquake prevention and disas

关 键 词：地震 预测 应急 GIS 地震灾害预测 城市应急系统 模拟系统 永安市 应用 设计 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学] X924.4[天文地球—固体地球物理学]