关于货币危机后经济衰退的经验分析  

The Economic Recession after Currency Crisis: An Empirical Treatment

作　　者：金洪飞[1] 姜诚[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2005年第10期22-33,共12页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：上海财经大学"211工程"重点学科建设项目;上海财经大学现代金融研究中心的资助

摘　　要：文章以1990年以来的近200次货币危机为样本,对货币危机后的经济衰退进行了经验分析。研究发现,危机前的经常账户状况、外债余额占GDP比例、国际流动性指标等经济变量以及危机后的汇率制度都不会显著影响到危机后的经济衰退。另外,危机后的经济衰退与危机国政府在危机中是否抛售外汇储备、是否采取汇率贬值都没有明显关系。但是经济分析的结果表明,危机前的失业率和汇率制度以及危机中是否提高利率等因素对危机后的经济衰退有显著作用。Using the currency crisis since 1990 as a sample, this paper empirically analyzes the economic recession after currency crises. It finds that economic variables, such as current account, foreign debt ratio of GDP, and international liquidity, do not have significant effect on post-crises economic ressesion, and neither do exchange rate regimes after crises. And there is no evidence to show that devaluation and reserve losses are related to post-crises growth. However, it finds that the unemployment rate and intermediate exchange rate regime before crises, interest rate rise during crises affect the post-crises economic recession significantly.

关 键 词：货币危机 经济衰退 外汇市场压力 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]