利用年内洪水统计特性计算设计洪水和分期汛限水位新方法  

A new calculating method of staged limited water level and design flood using time series law of flood statistical characteristics within the year

作　　者：曹永强 倪广恒[2] 王本德[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]辽宁师范大学城市与环境学院,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报》2005年第5期740-744,共5页Journal of Dalian University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50479056);教育部科学技术研究重点资助项目(01054)

摘　　要：传统的设计洪水确定方法往往导致一些水库在汛期弃水而汛后又无水可蓄,造成洪水资源的极大浪费.为更好地提高洪水资源利用率,基于暴雨洪水的物理成因和统计规律分析,提出采用年内洪水统计特性变化规律来确定设计洪水和各分期汛限水位的新方法,结合实例说明该方法在汛限水位动态控制中的实用性和可行性.与传统方法相比,新方法不仅可给出设计洪水和分期汛限水位值,而且当发生一次大洪水后,能在调度决策进程中为决策者提供未来发生洪水的概率分布.但是,该方法的适用性尚需大量资料验证,还不能作为确定“汛限水位动态控制范围”的主要依据.The traditional calculating methods of staged limited water level and design flood cause many reservoirs, especially in northern part of China, to spill lot of surplus water when floods occur, while there is little inflow to that reservoir after the flood season when they are allowed to store water to a relatively high elevation. To use the flood resources adequately and fully, the method which considers the time series variance law of flood statistical characteristics within the year to calculate staged limited water level in flood season and design flood is proposed. Case study demonstrates that the method is feasible and appliable. Compared with traditional methods, it could provide probability distribution of future＇s flood occurrence for the decision-makers during the process of reservoir scheduling, as well as give designed flood and staged limited level of reservoirs during the flood season. The results still need data proof from many practices and couldn＇t be the primary basis for determining the range of controlling limited level of reservoirs during the flood season dynamically.

关 键 词：暴雨 设计洪水 分期汛限水位 

分 类 号：TV697.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]