中国农村居民预防性储蓄行为分析  

Varying Parameter Analysis of Preventive Saving Activities and Motivation of Chinese Rural Residents

作　　者：周建 

出　　处：《统计研究》2005年第9期45-50,共6页Statistical Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(01JAZJD790004)研究成果;上海财经大学"211"工程建设项目;上海财经大学博士学位科研项目资助

摘　　要：The paper studies the oversensitive consumption behaviors of Chinese rural people based on the varying-coefficient model using the sample during 1978～2003, and the results show there exists obvious motivation of precautionary saving. Then going on estimating the degree of motivation on the basis of the model appertaining precautionary saving, and the conclusions show there exist the obvious uncertainties of future consumption expectations,which point out that descending the motivation of precautionary saving and the liquidity constraints is the important policy on the present condition of shortage requirement of rural.The paper studies the oversensitive consumption behaviors of Chinese rural people based on the varying-coefficient model using the sample during 1978 - 2003, and the results show there exists obvious motivation of precautionary saving. Then going on estimating the degree of motivation on the basis of the model appertaining precautionary saving, and the conclusions show there exist the obvious uncertainties of future consumption expectations, which point out that descending the motivation of precautionary saving and the liquidity constraints is the important policy on the present condition of shortage requirement of rural.

关 键 词：经济转型 农民消费 超敏感系数 预防性储蓄 中国人民银行 农村居民 行为分析 经济增长速度 全面建设小康社会 “三农”问题 

分 类 号：F832.31[经济管理—金融学] F323.8