POAMA海气耦合模式对2003和2004年南海夏季风预报能力的评估  

EVALUATION ON FORECAST OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON IN 2003 AND 2004 BY AIR-SEA COUPLED MODEL(POAMA)

作　　者：柳艳菊[1] 丁一汇[2] Keenan T 孙爱东[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [2]国家气候中心中国气象局开放研究室,北京100081 [3]Bureau of Meteorology Research Center Melbourne [4]北京大学计算中心,北京100871

出　　处：《热带海洋学报》2005年第5期19-30,共12页Journal of Tropical Oceanography

基　　金："九五"国家攀登计划"南海季风试验"资助项目(98-季风-7-3)

摘　　要：运用澳大利亚大气海洋耦合预报模式(Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia,POAMA)的输出结果,采用泰勒图与分类统计分析方法,评估了该模式对2003和2004年南海夏季风的爆发和演变进行实时预报的能力。通过对泰勒图的分析发现,随着预报初始时间越来越接近实际的季风爆发时间,模式预报南海夏季风爆发和演变的能力越来越强。当提前1—30d预报南海夏季风时,模式能够很好地预报风场、射出长波辐射OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation)和降水场的空间分布,其中对风场的预报最好。通过对季风爆发指数和分类统计的分析,定量分析了模式预报南海夏季风爆发的能力,结果表明该模式对南海夏季风爆发时间有一定的预报能力,其最大预报时限可以提前10—15d左右,这与目前中期预报的上限(2周)是一致的。Based on the output of Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia （POAMA） air-sea coupled model, by using Taylor diagram and categorical analysis method, the real time forecast performance of the model for the onset and evolution of the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） in 2003 and 2004 was evaluated. By the analysis of Taylor diagram, it was found that, with initial forecast time approaching the real monsoon onset date, the performance of the model greatly increased. When the initial forecast time led target by 1--30 days, the model could forecast the spatial distributions of wind, OLR （Outgoing Longwave Radiation） and precipitation fields, among which the wind was best forecasted. By employing a monsoon onset index and categorical statistical analysis, the performance of the model was quantitatively analyzed, and the results showed that the model had a definite performance to forecast the SCSSM onset and its evolution, with maximum forecast time limit of 10-15 days ahead of target. The above results coincides with the upper-limit （two weeks） of mid-term forecast.

关 键 词：海气耦合模式 南海夏季风 季风预报 预报能力 

分 类 号：P732.4[天文地球—海洋科学]