吴淞口水质浓度与上海地区长江水系船舶货运量关系的实证研究  

Study of the Relationship between the Water Concentration in Wusong Entrance and the Yangtzi-River Shipment Volume in Shanghai Area

作　　者：袁群[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学,上海200135

出　　处：《中国航海》2005年第3期11-14,共4页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70273019);上海市教委科技项目(2004118)

摘　　要：采用协整分析技术和Granger因果关系检验方法,对1994～2003年上海地区长江水系货运量与吴淞口水质浓度进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,长江水系货运量与吴淞口水质浓度不存在长期的均衡关系,但同时也发现货运量与水质浓度之间存在着一定的因果关系,长江水系船舶货运量直接影响着吴淞口水质浓度。The relationship between the river freight volume and water quality in the period from 1994 to 2003 are tested and analyzed by using the approaches of Johansen＇ s co-integration test and Granger-causality test. It is found that the Yangtzi-river shipment volume and water concentration do not have long term co-integration relationship, but there is a unidirectional GrangerCausality between them.

关 键 词：环境经济学 水质浓度 协整检验 船舶货运量 Granger-Causality检验 

分 类 号：U698.7[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]