SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL  

作　　者：LIU Yao-bin LI Ren-dong LI Chun-hua 

机构地区：[1]School of Management, China University of Mining and Technology Xuzhou 221008, P. R. China [2]Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430077, P. R. China [3]Institute of Resource, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, P. R. China

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2005年第3期219-226,共8页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：UndertheauspicesofKnowledgeInnovationProgramofChineseAcademyofSciences(No.KZCX2-SW-415)

摘　　要：By means of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) and SD (System Dynamics) methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR (Pressure State Response) framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates: firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized.By means of ISM （Interpretative Structural Modeling） and SD （System Dynamics） methods, this paper made a system dynamics model of urbanization and eco-environment coupling in Jiangsu Province according to the implication and PSR （Pressure State Response） framework of urbanization and eco-environment coupling. Moreover, five typical scenarios during 2000-2015 have been simulated and analyzed based on the time serial statistical data during 1990-2003 in Jiangsu, which indicates： firstly, there are significant differences between the results and the scenarios, and the five coupling models all have comparative advantages and drawbacks; secondly, in terms of the characteristics and regional development disparities of Jiangsu and the general rule of world urbanization process, this paper reveals that only when either population urbanization model or social urbanization model to be correspondingly adopted, the sustainable development among population, economy, urbanization and eco-environment can be realized.

关 键 词：URBANIZATION ECO-ENVIRONMENT system dynamics model SIMULATION Jiangsu Province 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F127.53